Daily FX Forex Technical Analysis 18th December 2008
Daily FX Technical Analysis 18th December 2008
USD JPY
USDJPY Downtrend still in place as the world flees the US Dollar. The Yen is now in a position where it is not the best performer in the market but still outperforms the Pound and Dollar and we believe this will be a continuing theme through 2009. The market remains well capped by TDMA1 resistance on the daily charts which suggest maintaining shorts on closes below 89.45 tonight. Should a close above 89.45 be forthcoming, there remains the chance of a push higher to TDST resistance on the daily charts at 95.78 where structural shorts are favoured, but 3 further sessions of weakness is likely to see this TDST level drop down to 92.93. We maintain our medium term targets of 77/80 for the major and see scope for a dramatic drop lower to a currently inconceivable 35 level in 2009. Initial resistance at the 88.16 pivot point ahead of 89.45, 91.99, 93.12 and 93.93. Support seen at 87.09 ahead of the 85 level and the risk level from the daily TD Combo 13 count from December 3rd at 83.60.
USD JPY, Daily chart TD Combo TDMA1, 200dma. Source CQG Inc.
Daily FX Technical Analysis 18th December 2008
GBP USD
GBPUSD Cable managed a close above the consolidation range highs of 1.5539 on Tuesday suggesting further progression is possible, but we are in a similar situation to late 2007 now where I described both currencies as being like ‘punch drunk boxers’ as the Yen, Swiss Franc and Euro power ahead. I am not a huge fan of trading this cross now as I think they are two currencies you don’t want to hold in the medium term as recent price action in crosses suggest. TDMA1 on the charts now suggesting a long stance on closes above 1.5267 tonight, but I am not that convinced of Sterling at all and would have little conviction of running a short USD trade by using Sterling - a drift back to the 1.50/1.48 region would not be a surprise and I still would lean towards tactical shorts in the 1.5539 region. Resistance through here seen at 1.5728, 1.5889 and 1.6202 with structural shorts favoured to be employed on rallies to daily TDST resistance at 1.6404. Support through 1.5267 seen at 1.5052, 1.4918 and 1.4675. Resistance seen at 1.5383 ahead of 1.5539 and 1.5889. Long-term targets remain 1.25/35 and potentially 1.00 further out.
GBPUSD Daily chart, TD Combo. Source CQG.
Daily FX Technical Analysis 18th December 2008
EUR USD
EURUSD Market shrugging off Tuesday’s 9 count sell set-up on TD Combo as it launches to the stars with the market starting to come to terms with the potentially devastating effects of the current economic policy in the US. We are getting close to TDST resistance at 1.4683 where I had been looking for a test and initial failure, but it looks like one of thiose periods now where we just keep going and going and rallies through the late August/Late September highs in the 1.4871/1.4913 region may be forthcoming. A clearance of this level suggests 1.5282 and we remain of a view that in the longer term we have formed an effective base above 1.19 and will go on to make new all time highs and wouldn’t be surprised to see a 2 handle sometime in 2009. Support today from the 1.4213 pivot point ahead of 1.3986 – TDMA1 support which has underpinned the rally from around the 1.2950 region and still must be respected. Below here 1.3727 and 1.3420 should provide bids, but the market doies look exceedingly progressive here. The way the market shrugged off the disappointing IFO number this morning is symptomatic of the ‘shut your eyes and buy it’ market that was seen in late 2004.
EURUSD Daily chart, TD Sequential, TDMA1. Source CQG
Daily FX Technical Analysis 18th December 2008
USD CHF
USDCHF - What started as a pullback is turning into a collapse here as the Swiss franc powers ahead against pretty much everything. Since suggesting a short position in USDCHF after the TD Combo 13 count sell countdown a few week back, we have fallen from the 1.22 region to below 1.05 and we continue to look for new lows to be made going forward. Market obviously very stretched to the downside here and sharp bounces are possible – TDMA1 resistance which caps the decline is way up at 1.1210 – but the USD looks broken after the recent FED actions and the Swiss franc remains one of the currencies we feel will benefit in the medium-term. Support today seen at 1.0312, 1.0135 and 1.0009 ahead of the Mar 2008 0.9634 low which is now rapidly coming back into focus. Resistance at a 1.0772 hourly peak ahead of the 1.0982 pivot point and 1.1210.
USDCHF Daily chart, TD Combo, TDMA1. Source CQG
Daily FX Technical Analysis 18th December 2008
USD CAD
USDCAD Canadian dollar benefiting from the USD bear without really setting the world alight. I maintain the bearish outlook here with further looses expected on closes below TDMA1 resistance at 1.2170 tonight. Initial resistance at the 1.1992 pivot with further offers seen at the 25th November low at 1.2120. Support at 1.1652 coming into focus with a close below the 1.1459 low from November 5th suggesting the formation of a double top which would call for a sharp reinitiation of bearish price action for 1.0331 TDST support and on to a 0.9885 double top target. Long-term cap at 1.30 potentially in place now and we feel the Canadian dollar has room to progress in a uniformly US dollar bearish environment without necessarily being the standout performer. For 2009, we do retain the potential that the late 2007 lows at 0.9057 are removed.
USDCAD Daily Chart. TD Combo. Source CQG Inc.
Daily FX Technical Analysis 18th December 2008
AUD USD
AUDUSD Market pushing through the upper limits of the 2 month consolidation at 0.7019 as a general USD bear market unfolds. The Aussie Dollar hasn’t been the star performer in the move, but given the positive development of the last 3 sessions there remains scope for further gains here into year-end. TDMA1 underpinning the move which suggests a continued long stance on closes above 0.6832 tonight. Initial support at the 0.6974 pivot point with bids below 0.6832 seen at 0.6806 and 0.6486. The positive close above 0.7019 argues for a bullish continuation here towards 0.7247 and 0.7671/96 possibly 0.7799. Retracement levels of the q3 bear market seen at 0.7470 (38.2%), 0.7927 (50%) and 0.8384 (61.8%)
AUDUSD Daily chart, TD Sequential, Source CQG Inc
Daily FX Technical Analysis 18th December 2008
GBP JPY
GBPJPY Nothing new to say here – the market remains stuck around the lower limits of recent price activity and the medium term outlook remains bearish despite the lack of recent progrtession to the downside. TDMA1 off the charts at the moment suggesting a non-trending environment and I continue to favour looking for decent selling opportunities. Resistance remains at 139.29 which again halted the upside yesterday ahead of 140.83 and 145.43. As noted recently the likelihood of hitting my preferred selling level of 161.84 TDST resistance has been greatly diminished after the recent daily close below 137.56. Support remains at 135.26 and 132.26 with a close below the risk level from the recent buy countdown on TD Combo at 131.74 now looking like the trigger for another bout of steep losses through our next long-term target of 129.32. As noted recently, I continue to be worried about the potential for a major sharp decline for sterling on a broad basis and thoughts of GBPJPY at 100 should not be
discounted.
GBPJPY Daily chart, TD Combo. Source CQG
Daily FX Technical Analysis 18th December 2008
EUR JPY
EURJPY Market continues to consolidate above 116.39 support as both currencies perform well against the US Dollar. Market hit a 9 count sell set-up on TD Combo yesterday, and the market needs to fashion a close above TDST resistance at 130.25 (we have had a crack at this level this morning but failed to sustain it) to suggest further progression from here and small tactical shorts at this level are worth considering with tight stops. Resistance through here seen at 132.18 and 138.59. Support through yesterday’s 126.83 high seen at the 125.38 pivot and TDMA1 support which suggests further progression on closes above 1.2410 tonight. Key support now becomes a fresh TDST line at 115.85 - a close below opens a move below the late October 113.39 and the 2002 lows at 111.25 to target 105.45/99.87.
EURJPY Daily, Daily chart. Source CQG
Daily FX Technical Analysis 18th December 2008
EUR GBP
EURGBP Incredibly aggressive advance pushed market to the 0.95 level this morning as parity comes into focus. Market has a 13 count on TD Combo sell countdown today and a similar signal caught the top of the Market on September 4th when prices subsequently fell from 0.8192 to 0.7699 over the next month. I had been expecting a possible respite from positive momentum at around the 0.90 level – replicating consolidations seen after hitting the 0.70 and 0.80 marks, but despite the further advance to 0.95, the TD Combo sell signal and the continued uniform bullishness of pundits and reporters for EURGBP make me think it uinwise for tactical traders to chase longs up here. Support today seen at 0.9332 ahead of the 0.9147 pivot point and TDMA1 support at 0.9047 which has underpinned the recent advance from the 0.8450 region. Resistance through 0.95 seen at the TD Combo risk level at 0.9775 and the magical 1.00 mark.
EURGBP Daily chart, TD Combo, Source CQG.
Daily FX Technical Analysis 18th December 2008
Source MIG Investments SA
Daily FX Forex Technical Analysis 18th December 2008